Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 56522.997030 59870.197129 63223.744037 66833.061781 70605.146678 74428.288270 78593.406885
2024-10-27 50731.622874 55807.369315 61043.070011 66838.735805 73065.880487 79546.908941 86793.413507
2024-11-03 47419.221495 53725.903090 60379.848870 67905.590478 76162.660324 84928.228687 94918.821591
2024-11-10 44740.229282 51965.332543 59733.648978 68677.762148 78661.040396 89431.076563 101897.386772
2024-11-17 42322.044047 50250.664161 58918.624417 69055.322418 80539.553021 93101.614718 107835.385765
2024-11-24 40037.339602 48507.323435 57909.086300 69060.320069 81864.384607 96044.521202 112872.117588
2024-12-01 38237.492197 47192.199764 57271.081962 69379.554681 83451.610064 99209.630068 118105.819437
2024-12-08 36484.390590 45825.395162 56477.900175 69430.231005 84653.399673 101876.461355 122729.172141
2024-12-15 35444.834186 45233.395877 56529.387605 70413.186731 86896.031997 105715.254865 128695.288730
2024-12-22 33880.556119 43934.897841 55676.387738 70263.994587 87756.081802 107908.467119 132723.275769
2024-12-29 33119.468788 43566.677482 55896.845195 71362.674044 90071.701525 111797.317440 138745.796199
2025-01-05 32186.990927 42941.230043 55766.547895 72004.238780 91815.918978 114999.107990 143959.503341
2025-01-12 30990.224602 41956.821939 55177.637110 72078.358075 92881.608403 117417.297798 148289.299498
2025-01-19 29729.704034 40846.390281 54393.481657 71877.890715 93587.806158 119391.613373 152089.691071
2025-01-26 29170.025838 40600.928634 54663.795956 72966.738944 95866.238002 123267.438038 158203.007173
2025-02-02 28519.285199 40208.988133 54725.797287 73776.107120 97788.708926 126710.980038 163806.376436
2025-02-09 27722.863962 39595.881989 54479.981989 74174.202246 99183.221963 129502.536076 168619.963576
2025-02-16 26798.675258 38781.184824 53946.143969 74179.157481 100063.809320 131649.285788 172640.180042
2025-02-23 26069.156506 38198.492588 53688.282252 74517.084018 101350.501789 134293.621361 177281.424162
2025-03-02 25258.830571 37479.270308 53227.577969 74570.723120 102258.902077 136457.881472 181327.799682
2025-03-09 24895.542365 37351.503958 53531.748522 75611.317629 104429.355001 140211.806613 187381.206283
2025-03-16 24069.463115 36563.065626 52937.439440 75453.386862 105039.762403 141990.925655 190955.153979
2025-03-23 23800.794560 36534.173122 53347.973050 76616.326436 107363.523102 145950.736499 197303.851911